Sunday, January 17, 2010

Blue is not your color, Massachusetts....

Scott Brown Massachusetts Senate Candidate is gaining momentum in closely watched U.S. Senate Race. Republicans smell victory ahead.

United States Senate Special Election: Democratic leaders are bracing for a defeat. A Republican may win a seat once held by the prominent liberal, Edward Kennedy.

Scott Brown, Republican State Senator from Massachusetts has pulled ahead in a few polls and it spells trouble for the 60-seat majority of the Democratic Party. The candidate for the Democrats, Martha Coakley, state attorney general was a sure in to win this. Unfortunately, the Republicans and the echo chamber of conservative activists, are pouring in last minute cash to make sure they defeat health care reform, a prime agenda for President Barack Obama.

Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight explains that the possibility of a defeat is imminent.

Excerpts from Silver:

It should be kept in mind that a lot of Brown's support is pretty new, which would ordinarily imply that it is pretty soft. Yes, I know there's a core of people -- maybe a fairly large core -- who are really, really excited about Scott Brown. But they only get to vote once apiece. And what the earlier polling established is that it's almost certainly not 50 percent of the electorate -- it might be 35 percent or 40 percent, but it's not 50 percent. He still needs some swing voters to get him over the finish line. Some of those voters were probably tending toward Brown over the last 7-10 days, when he was winning virtually every news cycle. But the headlines in the last 72 hours -- the ones that those voters will be thinking about as they head into the ballot booth -- may be a bit more even-handed (especially given Obama's visit, etc.), and a voter who has swing once is prone to swing again.

The White House is hoping that a little boast from President Obama can help the Coakley campaign stumble to the finish line. Democratic leaders are going to need every member to get support for the health care reform.

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